【Legislative Council Election】The first public opinion poll is out: 63% of pro-democracy camp supporters oppose the retention of parliamentarians

Collected by Wenka Xiou; Translated by Jingshui Yiyuan; Reviewed by Wenkenni

The first public opinion survey on whether members of the current Legislative Council should remain in office was released. Conducted by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Project, polls on whether full-term members should stay in office show that, overall, nearly half of the interviewees oppose the retention of current members, which is more than 10% higher than those in favor, indicating that they are democratic Among the supporters’ respondents, as many as more than 6 adults oppose staying. The academics pointed out that, the polling results reflected that the society still had no clear general direction on the relevant decision, and called on the pro-democracy camp to explain to the public the specific reasons for the extension of service or resignation en masse.

From the 17th to the 20th of this month, Hong Kong Minyan successfully interviewed 23,000 and more than 1,000 citizens online and phone. The results show that the overall ratio of opposition to retention is 47% to 35%. According to the survey method, there are also more opposition to retention than support. Among the more than 1,000 respondents who surveyed by telephone, 41% opposed retention, while 37% agreed. The online survey found that 47% opposed staying in office and 35% agreed.

It’s worth noting that if the respondents are divided according to their political attitudes, in the online survey, 63% of the respondents who are pro-democracy supporters are opposed to staying in office, and 20% are in favor. In the telephone survey, the same More than 6 adults opposed retention, and less than 2 adults supported retention.

Citizens only filled out the questions they wanted to answer and the questionnaire was invalidated.

In addition, the number of people who participated in this poll actually reached a record-breaking number of over 60,000. However, Zhong Tingyao, chairman and chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Research Institute, pointed out that only 43% of the respondents passed the “quality test” because some ” People who are very enthusiastic try to submit comments many times, and the system only counts the last reply.

At the same time, some people only responded to the questions they wanted to answer, but did not respond to other questions in the questionnaire and fill in their personal information, so the relevant responses were also omitted.

Zhong said that he noticed that some people were mobilized online to participate in this poll. It is estimated that more than 7,000 “new group members” who have been mobilized to answer the questionnaire on the Hong Kong Institute of Civil Affairs have their opinion that they tend to oppose staying, and this batch of data It was ultimately deemed valid.

Scholars say that the public opinion does not have a clear general direction and the democrats are in a dilemma.

Kwan Chung-ran, a lecturer in the Department of Asian and Policy Studies at the Education University of Hong Kong, analyzed that the current public opinion does not have a clear general direction on whether or not members will be extended. I believe this puts the democrats in a dilemma. He believes that the democrats should explain to the public more reasons why they prefer to stay in office or resign.

The related point is that those who support the extension of one year should explain to the public the specific methods of resistance to stay in the parliament, how to combine the opinions of the pro-democracy primaries to maximize political energy, and if the Legislative Council election is postponed again next year , And will you promise to extend it for only one year; and those who support the resignation should also explain to the public “In addition to the resignation, what do you want to bring out?” and how to continue to serve Hong Kong people outside the parliament Speak up, “I don’t want to say that the government will push the policy, the establishment will do whatever they want, and the factual democratic faction will be completely absent.” He also called on those who support the resignation of the president to think about the path of the democratic legislators after the resignation of the president, so that the public can clearly understand the rationale of both parties.

The Democratic Party also announced a few days ago that it would conduct a poll again and decided to stay according to the poll results. Zhong Tingyao said that he had a brief talk with the Democratic Party yesterday, revealing that the Democratic Party mentioned that the sample number of its polls was higher than the 1,000 in general polls, reaching the level of 2,000. He also suggested that there may be two thresholds for the poll, including the decision of “more than half” of the citizens as the final decision, or the intention of more than two-thirds of the democratic supporters to make the final decision, but if there are two thresholds How to solve the problems that have failed to meet the standards, Zhong said with a smile: “I (the Democratic Party) is thinking about it.”

Legislative Council Election stay or go is expected to be conducted next month.

In addition, the Democratic Party stated through a social networking site that it has contacted the Hong Kong Democracy Research Institute on the party’s polls about staying and staying. It is expected to conduct relevant polls next month. In response to the media, the chairman of the Democratic Party, Hu Zhiwei, pointed out that at present, he has only initially contacted the Hong Kong Democracy Research Institute on the direction of the polls, and has not discussed in detail with the other party. As for whether the Democratic Party will set a decisive threshold in the results of the polls to facilitate the final direction decision, Hu Zhizhi pointed out that the party has no plans to intervene in the direction of investigations, data analysis, etc., and hopes that the decision will be handed over to the research team. Discuss with different democrats, and then make a conclusion, hoping to narrow the differences within the democrats, reunite with the democrats who hold different opinions, and avoid controversies such as “moving the dragon’s door” and “arbitrary deduction”.

Hu Zhiwei also stated that the Democratic Party will hold no less than one street station, forum, etc. during this period to clearly express to the public the idea of ​​”tendency” to extend one year. He also said that although no opinion survey has actually been launched yet Timetable, but emphasizes that the party will complete all matters and announce the final decision before September 30, which is the original term of the legislative council members.

Democratic supporters comment on leaving

Online survey

Support for retention: 20%

Against retention: 63%

Half and a half: 16 %

Telephone survey

Support for retention: 19%

Against retention: 61%

Half and half: 20%

Source: Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme

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